TransUnion, one of the three major U.S. credit bureaus, has released its 2026 credit originations forecast as part of its Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report. The findings paint a picture of a normalizing credit market with measured growth across most lending categories, though the pace of expansion is expected to slow compared to 2025. Understanding these trends is crucial for borrowers, lenders, and anyone interested in the broader economic landscape.
The forecast reveals that mortgage originations will be the primary driver of 2026 expansion, with purchase mortgages expected to increase 4.0% and refinance mortgages rising 4.2%. This represents a continuation of a two-year rebound in the mortgage market. Unsecured personal loans are projected to experience their third consecutive year of annual growth, while credit card originations will increase modestly. Auto loans, however, are expected to decline slightly following strong 2025 gains driven by manufacturer incentives.
These projections reflect a credit landscape that is stabilizing after periods of volatility. Lenders are adopting a more measured approach to growth, relying on advanced data analytics and risk management strategies to navigate an economic environment characterized by inflation at 2.45%, unemployment rising to 4.5%, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Understanding the 2026 Credit Originations Forecast
TransUnion's 2026 credit originations forecast, released alongside the Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report, provides a comprehensive view of expected lending activity across major credit categories. The forecast indicates that while credit originations will continue to expand in 2026, the growth rate will be more mo
According to Michele Raneri, Vice President and Head of U.S. Research and Consulting at TransUnion, "Origination volume is expected to remain flat or experience slight seasonal declines next quarter, with a growing share shifting toward below-prime consumers. The continued expansion of the bankcard market reflects strengthened originations across all risk tiers." This statement underscores the nuanced nature of the 2026 forecast—while overall originations are expanding, the composition of that growth is shifting, with lenders increasingly targeting borrowers with lower credit scores.
The forecast is grounded in real market data. Bankcard balances reached $1.15 trillion in Q4 2025, representing a 4.2% year-over-year increase [Source: TransUnion Q4 2025 CIIR]. Additionally, bankcard originations in Q3 2025 grew 11.7% year-over-year, demonstrating the strength of credit card lending heading into 2026. These figures suggest that despite economic headwinds, consumers continue to access credit and lenders remain willing to extend it.
Mortgage Market Leadership and Rebound Trends
Mortgages are expected to be the primary engine of credit originations growth in 2026, with both purchase and refinance segments contributing to expansion. Purchase mortgage originations are forecast to increase 4.0% in 2026, while refinance mortgage originations are expected to rise 4.2% [Source: TransUnion 2026 Originations Forecast]. These gains represent the continuation of a two-year rebound in the mortgage market, a significant development given the challenges the sector faced in previous years.
The strength in purchase mortgages reflects underlying economic factors, including continued demand for homeownership and relative stability in the housing market. The rebound in refinance mortgages is particularly noteworthy, as it suggests that borrowers are taking advantage of potential rate environments to improve their loan terms. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates in 2026, refinancing activity could accelerate if rate declines materialize.
According to TransUnion's analysis, the mortgage market's leadership in 2026 originations growth reflects both consumer demand and lender confidence. As Jason Laky, Executive Vice President and Head of Financial Services at TransUnion, noted, "Lenders are maintaining a measured approach to profitable growth, relying on richer data and analytics to control risk and fraud." This measured approach is particularly evident in the mortgage sector, where lenders are using sophisticated underwriting standards and data analytics to manage risk while still expanding originations.
Personal Loans and Credit Cards Show Resilience
Unsecured personal loans are expected to experience their third consecutive year of annual growth in 2026, demonstrating the sustained appeal of this lending category for both borrowers and lenders. Personal loans offer flexibility and faster funding compared to mortgages, making them attractive for consumers seeking to consolidate debt, finance home improvements, or cover unexpected expenses.
Credit card originations are projected to increase modestly in 2026, continuing the positive momentum observed in 2025. The bankcard market's expansion is particularly significant given the economic uncertainties facing consumers. With bankcard balances reaching $1.15 trillion in Q4 2025 and growing at 4.2% year-over-year, the credit card market remains a robust segment of the lending landscape [Source: TransUnion Q4 2025 CIIR].
TransUnion's forecast indicates that credit card originations will grow across all risk tiers, from prime to below-prime borrowers. This broad-based expansion suggests that lenders are confident in their ability to manage credit risk across the credit spectrum. The growth in below-prime originations is particularly noteworthy, as it indicates that lenders are finding profitable opportunities in serving borrowers with lower credit scores, likely through more sophisticated pricing and risk management strategies.
The resilience of personal loans and credit cards reflects consumer demand for accessible credit. With unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation at 2.45%, consumers may be increasingly relying on credit to manage their finances and maintain their standard of living. Lenders, in turn, are responding to this demand while maintaining disciplined underwriting standards.
Auto Loans Face Headwinds After Strong 2025
While most lending categories are expected to expand in 2026, auto loans present a different picture. TransUnion's forecast indicates that auto loan originations will decline slightly in 2026 following strong gains in 2025. This decline is largely attributable to the normalization of the auto market after a period of elevated manufacturer incentives that drove strong originations in 2025.
The auto lending market is particularly sensitive to manufacturer incentives, interest rates, and consumer confidence. The strong performance in 2025 was partly driven by aggressive incentive programs designed to clear inventory and stimulate demand. As these incentives normalize in 2026, auto loan originations are expected to moderate. Additionally, rising unemployment and economic uncertainty may dampen consumer demand for vehicle purchases, further contributing to the expected decline.
However, the expected decline in auto loan originations should be viewed in context. The forecast suggests a slight decline rather than a sharp drop, indicating that the auto lending market will remain relatively stable even as it adjusts from 2025 highs. Lenders will likely continue to focus on prime and near-prime borrowers, using data analytics to manage credit risk in a more challenging environment.
Lender Strategy Shifts Toward Data-Driven Risk Management
Across all lending categories, a clear trend is emerging: lenders are increasingly relying on advanced data analytics and sophisticated risk management strategies to navigate the 2026 credit environment. This shift reflects both the opportunities and challenges presented by the current economic landscape.
As Jason Laky explained, "Lenders are maintaining a measured approach to profitable growth, relying on richer data and analytics to control risk and fraud." This statement encapsulates the modern lending philosophy. Rather than pursuing aggressive growth at the expense of credit quality, lenders are using data to identify profitable lending opportunities while minimizing risk.
TransUnion and other credit bureaus play a crucial role in this data-driven approach by providing lenders with comprehensive credit information, risk scores, and analytics. By leveraging this data, lenders can make more informed underwriting decisions, price loans more accurately, and detect fraudulent applications more effectively.
The emphasis on data-driven risk management is particularly important given the economic uncertainties facing the market. With inflation at 2.45%, unemployment rising to 4.5%, and the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates, the credit environment is in flux. Lenders that can effectively use data to navigate this uncertainty will be better positioned to maintain profitability while managing credit risk.
What This Means for Consumers and the Economy
TransUnion's 2026 credit originations forecast has important implications for consumers and the broader economy. For borrowers, the forecast suggests that credit will remain available in 2026, though the terms and conditions may vary depending on creditworthiness. Those with strong credit scores can expect favorable terms on mortgages, personal loans, and credit cards. Borrowers with lower credit scores may face higher interest rates and stricter terms, but lenders are expected to continue serving this segment of the market.
The moderate expansion in credit originations suggests that the economy is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026, though growth will be measured rather than robust. The strength in mortgage originations reflects confidence in the housing market, while the continued growth in personal loans and credit cards indicates that consumers will continue to access credit to meet their financial needs.
For policymakers and economists, the forecast provides insights into consumer demand and economic health. The expected growth in credit originations suggests that consumers and businesses remain willing to borrow, which is generally a positive sign for economic activity. However, the moderation in growth compared to 2025 suggests that the economy may be cooling from recent highs, which could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding interest rates.
The forecast also highlights the importance of credit risk management in a normalizing market. As lenders shift toward below-prime borrowers and rely more heavily on data analytics, the quality of credit risk assessment becomes increasingly important. Lenders that can effectively manage credit risk while serving a broader range of borrowers will be well-positioned for success in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Mortgage originations will lead 2026 growth, with purchase mortgages increasing 4.0% and refinance mortgages rising 4.2%
- Personal loans are expected to experience their third consecutive year of annual growth
- Credit card originations will increase modestly, with bankcard balances reaching $1.15 trillion in Q4 2025
- Auto loan originations are forecast to decline slightly after strong 2025 performance driven by manufacturer incentives
- Lenders are increasingly relying on data analytics and sophisticated risk management to navigate the 2026 credit environment
- Credit will remain available in 2026, though terms will vary based on creditworthiness and economic conditions
TransUnion's 2026 credit originations forecast, released as part of the Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report, paints a picture of a credit market in transition. Mortgage originations are expected to lead growth, with purchase mortgages rising 4.0% and refinance mortgages increasing 4.2%. Personal loans are projected to experience their third consecutive year of growth, while credit card originations will increase modestly. Auto loans are expected to decline slightly after strong 2025 performance.
These projections reflect a credit landscape that is normalizing after periods of volatility, with lenders adopting more measured approaches to growth and relying increasingly on data analytics to manage risk. For consumers, this means that credit will remain available in 2026, though terms will vary based on creditworthiness. For the broader economy, the forecast suggests moderate but steady expansion, with credit growth supporting economic activity even as the pace of expansion slows.
As we move into 2026, understanding these credit trends is essential for anyone involved in borrowing, lending, or economic analysis. The insights provided by TransUnion's forecast offer valuable guidance for navigating the credit landscape and making informed financial decisions.
Sources
- Automated Pipeline
- TransUnion 2026 Originations Forecast Shows Continued Positive Momentum Amidst Moderate Expansion
- TransUnion Forecasts Moderate Expansion in 2026 Originations
- Moderate Credit Growth Expected In 2026 As Lending Normalizes
- TransUnion forecasts refinances to level off in 2026 as purchase loans accelerate
- Source: globenewswire.com
- Source: barchart.com
- Source: newsroom.transunion.com
- Source: nationalmortgageprofessional.com
